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PORT OF SEATTLE MEMORANDUM COMMISSION AGENDA Item No. 7a STAFF BRIEFING Date of Meeting October 7, 2014 DATE: September 15, 2014 TO: Ted Fick, Chief Executive Officer FROM: Mark Reis, Managing Director, Aviation Division Elizabeth Leavitt, Director, Aviation Planning and Environmental SUBJECT: Sustainable Airport Master Plan (SAMP) Forecast and Facilities Challenges SYNOPSIS This briefing provides an overview of the comprehensive and rigorous process to develop the Airport's operational activity forecast. The activity forecast is the first step in master planning and includes both aircraft operations and enplanements. The forecast will serve as the foundation for facility planning as part of the Airport's sustainable master plan (SAMP). With the draft results of the forecast and a strong indication of near-term demand based on recent airline activity and announced plans for increased service at Sea- Tac, we now have a good understanding of long- and near-term gate demand and the challenges the Airport will face to bring additional capacity on-line and maintain an acceptable level of service to our customers. SAMP facility planning is at the earliest stages, which starts with the development and assessment of terminal expansion concepts to meet long-term gate requirements. Understanding the best way to balance terminal/gate capacity to the fixed capacity of the airfield will drive planning in all other functional areas such as landside, cargo, and airside & airline support facilities, and will inform a phased approach to facilities development. Terminal expansion beyond the approved International Arrivals Facility (IAF) and NorthSTAR projects will impact existing facilities that will need to be relocated or eliminated, potentially reducing capacity in areas such as cargo or aircraft maintenance. In the near-term, the soonest new gates could be constructed is ten to twelve years. At their current stage of design, staff anticipates that construction of the IAF and NorthSTAR projects will take a minimum of five gates out of service over the next six years. Anticipated strong airline growth and already strained gate capacity will make hardstand operations and busing unavoidable, resulting in a low level of passenger service. In addition, irregular passenger loads at bus access locations in the terminal will strain terminal facilities and further imbalance ticket lobby and curb capacity/demand. BACKGROUND In September 2012, the Port Commission approved scope and budget for the creation of a Sustainable Airport Master Plan (SAMP) and in February of 2014, increased the SAMP Template revised May 30, 2013. COMMISSION AGENDA Ted Fick, Chief Executive Officer Page 2 of 2 budget from $6,000,000 to $9,650,000 to include planning support to advance project definition of the IAF. Planning work is now complete on the IAF project and the draft forecast of airport activity. Over the next approximately six months, the planning team will work with the FAA on approval of the forecast, and will use the forecast to analyze facility requirements and evaluate development alternatives in an iterative process. Airports can be described as a three-legged stool, balancing capacity between airside, terminal, and landside areas of the airport. Overall airport system capacity is limited by the pinch point of the area with the least capacity. The master plan process provides an opportunity to take a comprehensive assessment of facilities capacity and forecasted demand over 5-, 10-, and 20-year timeframes. Through alternatives development and evaluation, the SAMP will culminate in a capital improvement program and plan of finance that will deliver cost effective projects to remove pinch points and provide a high level of service to airport customers. Airport master plans are typically prepared every 5 to 10 years. The last formal master plan for Sea-Tac was developed in the mid-1990s and was focused primarily on the third runway. Passenger activity has since grown by over 50% to almost 35 million annual passengers (MAP) in 2013 and is projected to grow to 66 MAP in 20 years. Sea-Tac's rapid growth is creating challenges in our facility with gates and ticket counter availability. While there are a handful of major projects currently in design that will provide needed terminal-related capacity in the near-term (International Arrivals Facility, NorthSTAR, and Baggage Optimization), Airport facilities are becoming increasingly strained as we experience a surge in activity; due in large part to a rebound in the economy, steady growth from Alaska Air Group, and Delta Air Lines' increase in service as they build an international gateway hub at Sea-Tac. ATTACHMENTS TO THIS BRIEFING PowerPoint presentation PREVIOUS COMMISSION ACTIONS OR BRIEFINGS February 28, 2014 - Commission authorization to amend the existing Sustainable Airport Master Plan (SAMP) service agreement with Leigh Fisher Associates for IAF-related planning tasks for an increase of $3,650,000 and a new total contract amount of $9,650,000. September 5, 2012 - Commission authorization for SAMP development and to advertise and execute a contract for consulting services for the SAMP, with a total estimated value of $6 million. August 14, 2012 - Commission deferred consideration of a request to approve funding for the Sustainable Airport Master Plan (SAMP). June 26, 2012 - Commission Briefing: Terminal Development Challenges.
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