7a Supp
Item No. 7a_supp Meeting Date October 7, 2014 SUSTAINABLE AIRPORT MASTER PLAN (SAMP) Activity Forecast and Facilities Challenges Briefing outline Master Plan Schedule Activity Forecast Forecast development Demand drivers Results Facilities Challenges - Near-term and Long Term Gates Check-in lobby Curbs Roadways Next Steps 2 Master Plan Schedule SAMP Milestone Schedule Activity Forecast Projected demand Annual aircraft operations Annual passengers Annual landed weight of cargo Planning day flight schedules (5, 10, 20 years) Q3 Alternatives Phased development plan 2015 Demand/capacity requirements Range of potential alternatives Preferred alternative Airport-wide land use allocation Q4 Plan of Finance Capital program 2015 Financial capacity analysis Financial plan for preferred alternative 3 Activity Forecast Forecast influenced by key passenger traffic components. SEA Key Passenger Traffic Components Key Drivers Underlying socioeconomic conditions Cost of travel (airfares, yields, and LCC seats) Airline service decisions related to connecting hub and international gateway operations Route networks of hubbing airlines Overlapping service and competition Competing service at West Coast gateways 4 Activity Forecast 1. Domestic Originating Passengers Independent forecasts by the Puget Sound Regional Council are for strong economic growth in the Seattle Region FAA forecasts of airline yield, a measure of the cost of travel, are for slight decreases through the forecast period* These independent forecasts, combined with a strong explanatory model, suggest continued strong growth in SEA domestic originating passengers at rates above the national average *Note: USDOT data for airline yield do not include ancillary and other fees. 5 Activity Forecast 2. Connecting Passengers (domestic & int'l) According USDOT data, approximately 4.5 million passengers boarded connecting flights at SEA in 2013 Alaska accounted for nearly 75% of SEA connecting passengers in 2013 Between 1998 and 2013, Alaska Airlines' connecting passengers at SEA increased an average of 3.9% per year The expansion of Delta's service at SEA is likely to increase the overall number of connecting passengers and Delta's share of the Airport total 6 Activity Forecast 3. International Gateway Passengers The continued development of international service at SEA will be supported by: The location of global companies and strong international communities of interest in the Mexico Seattle region Shorter flight times to Asian Other int'l Europe destinations compared with other West Coast gateways Canada The increasing presence of SkyTeam members at SEA Delta's Pacific gateway at Seattle - Asia strategically located with cost advantages over Asian gateways Delta expects international passenger traffic growth at SEA to be organic 7 Activity Forecast Forecast results Airport traffic will grow by 14 million enplanements (28 million total passengers) in next 20 years Growth in total passengers (by million annual passengers - MAP) 2014: 37 MAP 2024: 52 MAP 2034: 66 MAP Growth in aircraft operations 2014: 332,000 2024: 445,000 2034: 538,000 8 Activity Forecast SEA enplaned passenger forecast (draft) 9 Activity Forecast SEA aircraft operations forecast (draft) SEA aircraft operations increased 2.5% in 2013 and are estimated to increase 7.4% in 2014 10 Activity Forecast Severe shortage of contact gates for at least the next decade 11 Facilities Challenges: Gates 50% more aircraft parking positions required in 2034 Early stages of SAMP planning considers terminal expansion options Recommended alternative could include expansion north or south or a combination of both 12 Facilities Challenges: Gates North Satellite expansion option Due to dependent projects, the soonest gates could be added to the North Satellite is 2024-2026 Dual taxilane construction requires partial or full relocation of the southbound lanes of the North Airport Expressway Dislocates Fuel Rack, AMB 6, & the Air Rescue and Fire Fighting station (ARFF) 13 Facilities Challenges: Gates South Satellite expansion option Expansion to the south may trigger development of a South Aviation Support Area (SASA) to replace dislocated facilities If SASA is constructed, the soonest gates could be added to the South Satellite is 2026-2030 14 Facilities Challenges: Gates South pier construction option Expansion to the south may trigger development of a South Aviation Support Area (SASA) to replace dislocated facilities If SASA is constructed, the soonest gates could be constructed as a pier satellite is 2026-2030 15 Facilities Challenges: Gates Hardstand operations and busing provide low level of passenger service As many as five hardstand operations at peak in 2015 and eight in 2020 Hardstand use competes with Remain Over Night (RON) parking at morning peak Close-in hardstands that could potentially be used for passenger operations 16 Facilities Challenges: Gates Hardstand operations and busing provide low level of passenger service Passenger loads at bus access points strain holdroom and concessions capacities Bus access points to terminal at ramp level 17 Facilities Challenges: Check-in Lobby Airline growth will require major changes to check-in lobby facilities Potentially all check-in positions will be utilized by 2015 Leverage technology and common use positions Reposition airlines Near-term solutions Flow through ticketing Connecting counters - baggage system-gates Longer-term solutions Self-bag drop (garage, RCF, promenade, cruise terminals) Additional complexities Internal circulation Curbside congestion and imbalance w/ check-in Baggage systems 18 Facilities Challenges: Curbs Airline growth will bottleneck airport access without major improvements Upper drive sidewalk congestion creates an unsafe condition and low level of service Remove curbside check-in? Improve access from North Ground Transportation Lot? Limited frontage and lanes to access curbs Expand upper drive? Relocate some modes to garage? RCF busing breaks down at roughly 40 million annual passengers (MAP) Automated people mover (APM)? 19 Next Steps Next steps - Near Term Prepare for remote hardstand and busing operations-now Reposition airline ticket counters-2015 Utilize technological solutions to minimize capital expense Near-term capacity and operational challenges task force deployed-now 20 Next Steps SAMP Stakeholder Involvement Airlines provided input into forecast Airline and tenant engagement will continue through Master plan alternatives analysis and plan of finance Public involvement and open houses in Q4 2014 (forecast and preliminary alternatives), Q2 (alternatives analysis) and Q4 2015 (preferred alternative) City of SeaTac, other SW King County community entities Commission engagement at each stage of the master plan- Forecast, preliminary alternatives, alternatives analysis and preferred alternative. NEPA/SEPA environmental review and public comment period 21 Next Steps SAMP Next steps Completion of alternatives - 2015 Preferred alternative - 2015 Environmental review - 2016 Identify post-2020 facility investments and plan of finance Finalize 2020-2030 facility strategy for Commission consideration - 2015-2016 22
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