Item No.      7a_supp 
Meeting Date   October 7, 2014 
SUSTAINABLE AIRPORT MASTER PLAN 
(SAMP) 
Activity Forecast 
and 
Facilities Challenges

Briefing outline 
Master Plan Schedule 
Activity Forecast 
Forecast development 
Demand drivers 
Results 
Facilities Challenges - Near-term and Long Term 
Gates 
Check-in lobby 
Curbs 
Roadways 
Next Steps 

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Master Plan Schedule 
SAMP Milestone Schedule 

Activity Forecast     Projected demand 
Annual aircraft operations 
Annual passengers 
Annual landed weight of cargo 
Planning day flight schedules (5, 10, 20 years) 
Q3 
Alternatives       Phased development plan 
2015 
Demand/capacity requirements 
Range of potential alternatives 
Preferred alternative 
Airport-wide land use allocation 
Q4 
Plan of Finance      Capital program 
2015 
Financial capacity analysis 
Financial plan for preferred alternative 

3

Activity Forecast 
Forecast influenced by key passenger traffic
components. 
SEA Key Passenger Traffic Components   Key Drivers 
Underlying socioeconomic
conditions 
Cost of travel (airfares, yields, and
LCC seats) 
Airline service decisions related to
connecting hub and international
gateway operations 
Route networks of hubbing airlines 
Overlapping service and
competition 
Competing service at West Coast
gateways 

4

Activity Forecast 
1. Domestic Originating Passengers 
Independent forecasts by the
Puget Sound Regional Council are
for strong economic growth in the
Seattle Region 
FAA forecasts of airline yield, a
measure of the cost of travel, are
for slight decreases through the
forecast period* 
These independent forecasts,
combined with a strong
explanatory model, suggest
continued strong growth in SEA
domestic originating passengers
at rates above the national
average 
*Note: USDOT data for airline yield do not include ancillary and
other fees. 

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Activity Forecast 
2. Connecting Passengers (domestic & int'l) 
According USDOT data,
approximately 4.5 million
passengers boarded connecting
flights at SEA in 2013 
Alaska accounted for nearly 75% of
SEA connecting passengers in 2013 
Between 1998 and 2013, Alaska
Airlines' connecting passengers at
SEA increased an average of 3.9%
per year 
The expansion of Delta's service at
SEA is likely to increase the overall
number of connecting passengers
and Delta's share of the Airport total 

6

Activity Forecast 
3. International Gateway Passengers 
The continued development of international
service at SEA will be supported by: 
The location of global companies
and strong international
communities of interest in the
Mexico 
Seattle region 
Shorter flight times to Asian
Other int'l         Europe 
destinations compared with other
West Coast gateways 
Canada 
The increasing presence of SkyTeam 
members at SEA 
Delta's Pacific gateway at Seattle -                               Asia 
strategically located with cost
advantages over Asian gateways 
Delta expects international
passenger traffic growth at SEA to be
organic 
7

Activity Forecast 
Forecast results 
Airport traffic will grow by 14 million enplanements (28
million total passengers) in next 20 years 
Growth in total passengers (by million annual passengers - MAP) 
2014: 37 MAP 
2024: 52 MAP 
2034: 66 MAP 
Growth in aircraft operations 
2014: 332,000 
2024: 445,000 
2034: 538,000 

8

Activity Forecast 
SEA enplaned passenger forecast (draft) 




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Activity Forecast 
SEA aircraft operations forecast (draft) 
SEA aircraft operations increased 2.5% in 2013 and are estimated to increase 7.4% in 2014 









10

Activity Forecast 
Severe shortage of contact gates for at least
the next decade 




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Facilities Challenges: Gates 
50% more aircraft parking positions required
in 2034 
Early stages of SAMP planning considers terminal
expansion options 
Recommended alternative could include expansion north or
south  or a combination of both 




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Facilities Challenges: Gates 
North Satellite expansion option 
Due to dependent projects, the soonest gates could be
added to the North Satellite is 2024-2026 
Dual taxilane construction requires partial or full relocation
of the southbound lanes of the North Airport Expressway 
Dislocates Fuel Rack, AMB 6, & the Air Rescue and Fire
Fighting station (ARFF) 



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Facilities Challenges: Gates 
South Satellite expansion option 
Expansion to the south may trigger development of a South
Aviation Support Area (SASA) to replace dislocated facilities 
If SASA is constructed, the soonest gates could be added to
the South Satellite is 2026-2030 




14

Facilities Challenges: Gates 
South pier construction option 
Expansion to the south may trigger development of a South
Aviation Support Area (SASA) to replace dislocated facilities 
If SASA is constructed, the soonest gates could be
constructed as a pier satellite is 2026-2030 




15

Facilities Challenges: Gates 
Hardstand operations and busing provide low
level of passenger service 
As many as five hardstand operations at peak in 2015 and
eight in 2020 
Hardstand use competes with Remain Over Night (RON)
parking at morning peak 
Close-in hardstands that could potentially
be used for passenger operations 





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Facilities Challenges: Gates 
Hardstand operations and busing provide low
level of passenger service 
Passenger loads at bus access points strain holdroom and
concessions capacities 

Bus access points to terminal at ramp level 





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Facilities Challenges: Check-in Lobby 
Airline growth will require major changes to
check-in lobby facilities 
Potentially all check-in positions will be utilized by 2015 
Leverage technology and common use positions 
Reposition airlines 
Near-term solutions 
Flow through ticketing 
Connecting counters - baggage system-gates 
Longer-term solutions 
Self-bag drop (garage, RCF, promenade, cruise terminals) 
Additional complexities 
Internal circulation 
Curbside congestion and imbalance w/ check-in 
Baggage systems 

18

Facilities Challenges: Curbs 
Airline growth will bottleneck airport access
without major improvements 
Upper drive sidewalk congestion creates an unsafe
condition and low level of service 
Remove curbside check-in? 
Improve access from North Ground Transportation Lot? 
Limited frontage and lanes to access curbs 
Expand upper drive? 
Relocate some modes to garage? 
RCF busing breaks down at roughly 40 million annual
passengers (MAP) 
Automated people mover (APM)? 

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Next Steps 
Next steps - Near Term 
Prepare for remote hardstand and busing operations-now 
Reposition airline ticket counters-2015 
Utilize technological solutions to minimize capital expense 
Near-term capacity and operational challenges task force
deployed-now 



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Next Steps 
SAMP Stakeholder Involvement 
Airlines provided input into forecast 
Airline and tenant engagement will continue through
Master plan alternatives analysis and plan of finance
Public involvement and open houses in Q4 2014 (forecast
and preliminary alternatives), Q2 (alternatives analysis)
and Q4 2015 (preferred alternative) 
City of SeaTac, other SW King County community entities
Commission engagement at each stage of the master plan-
Forecast, preliminary alternatives, alternatives analysis
and preferred alternative. 
NEPA/SEPA environmental review and public comment
period 
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Next Steps 
SAMP Next steps 
Completion of alternatives - 2015 
Preferred alternative - 2015 
Environmental review - 2016 
Identify post-2020 facility investments and plan of finance 
Finalize 2020-2030 facility strategy for Commission
consideration - 2015-2016 


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