3b Panel 4

Economic Trends in the
Puget Sound Region 
Port of Seattle Commission 
February 23, 2015 

1

National GDP Growth Trend & Forecasts 


National GDP 
2.5% 
2.2% 
to 2.8% 
CAGR 
2010-2015      Growth in 2016 

2

Employment Change Trends & Forecast 
Central Puget Sound Region, Annual Growth 

Historic                                            Forecast 








Community Attributes Inc., 2016 
3

Employment Trends & Forecast 
Central Puget Sound Region, Non-farm Jobs 








Community Attributes Inc., 2016 
Forecast growth of 1.4% per year between 2016-2020 
2016 growth of 2.5%. 
4

Puget Sound Regional Jobs, 1960-2015 
Jobs (1,000s) 

Government 





Trade 

Construction 
Manufacturing 
Aerospace 

Washington State Employment Security Department 
5

Regional employment driven by a few 
large employers 

Est. Regional Employees (K) 
500K 
461K 
400K 
286K 
300K                                   ~30% of Regional Jobs 

200K    175K 

100K 

0K 
Direct     Indirect     Total 
Jobs      Jobs 

01 Seattle GCI- RLC Day 1- Benchmark Results vF-conf format.pptx                                                                                          6

Strengths & Growth Central Puget Sound Region 




U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, WA State ESD                             7

Employment Forecast, 2015-2018 




8

Exports from the Greater Seattle Region,
2004-2014 




U.S. Census Bureau; Brookings Institute; Trade Partnership; Community Attributes Inc. 

9

In 2013, Seattle ranked 5th among peer cities for
overall global competitiveness 
Human   Business   Capital &   Global     Infra-
Overall Competitiveness 
Capital     Environ.    Innovation    Connect.    structure 
70 
San Francisco 
Singapore 
60
Boston 
Amsterdam                   4th 
3rd                     3rd 
5th   Seattle  50
Stockholm 
Melbourne 
40                                               7th 
6th 
Vancouver 
Hamburg 
30 
Source: BCG Analysis 

BCG on Seattle's Global Competitiveness (RLC2015).pptx                                                                                              10

2015 city ranking update 
Ranking          2013                 2015 

#1              San Francisco               Singapore 
#2              Singapore                 San Francisco 
#3              Boston                   Boston 
#4              Amsterdam                Amsterdam 
#5              Seattle                   Stockholm 
#6              Stockholm                 Seattle 
#7              Melbourne                 Vancouver 
#8              Vancouver                 Melbourne 
#9              Hamburg                  Hamburg 
Source: BCG Analysis 

BCG on Seattle's Global Competitiveness (RLC2015).pptx                                                                                              11

Our view of the most pressing issues 
Addressing variable K-12 outcomes 
Significant
Leading the country in STEM-related education 
education gaps 
Doubling (or more) local STEM degree capacity 
Attracting & retaining mid-sized companies, HQ. 
Limited economic   Keeping our innovative companies here 
diversity       Stopping the export of job growth 
Creating and promoting a cohesive global brand 
Lack of global
Attracting global businesses to meet and locate here 
presence 
Avoiding the "collapse of the middle" 
Income 
Driving 2x living wage jobs "for the rest of us" 
bifurcation 
Considering "outside the box" economic approaches
Growth-limiting    Investing in a regional transportation solution 
infrastructure     Proactively managing sustainable growth 
gaps 
BCG on Seattle's Global Competitiveness (RLC2015).pptx                                                                                              12

Seattle's income disparity growing faster than
notably striated cities such as New York 
Gini coefficient in Seattle approaching that of New York... 

Gini coefficient 
1999      2009 
Seattle          0.39        0.48 
New York        0.48       0.54 


Source: US Census, Harvard School of Public Health, King County 
BCG on Seattle's Global Competitiveness (RLC2015).pptx                                                                                              13

Today 
Middle income jobs declined from 2005-2013 
2005 
2009 
Middle Income 35-75K of annual income 
Percent of total jobs                                                                                                  2013 
30% 

20% 

10% 

0% 
$1 to $15K or less    $15K to $25K      $25K to $35K      $35K to $50K      $50K to $65K      $65 to $75K     $75K to $100K     $100K or more 
"Working Income Jobs"      "Middle Income Jobs"       "Upper Income Jobs" 
Food prep and serving     Production occupations -       Management and
Examples      occupations ($18K)        machinists, welders ($35K)       financial occupations
($76K) 
Material moving         Construction occupations
occupations ($23K)        ($39K)                   Eng. & Tech.
occupations ($87K) 
Source: US Census Bureau, American Census Survey, King County, Full-time, year-round workers with earnings, 2009 5 year estimates, 2013 5 year
estimates, 2005 estimates 

BCG on Seattle's Global Competitiveness (RLC2015).pptx                                                                                              14

Today 
Significant changes within a few job categories 
Low Income          Middle Income          High Income 
421K jobs ( 09' +20K jobs)     347K jobs (09' -7K jobs)     263K jobs (09'+18K jobs) 
$27K median income       $49K median income       $87K median income 
Transportation               Operations                 Eng. & Tech.
+37%     (business and      +13%       occupations        +19% 
financial) 

Personal care and            Sales and related             Healthcare
services                                    -3% 
+18%                             occupations        +6% 

Healthcare support            Life, physical, and            Management and
social science      -12%       financial
+18%     occupations                                +5% 
occupations 

Office and          -6%      Construction        -22% 
administrative 
Source: US Census Bureau, American Census Survey, King County, All civilian workers above age 16, 2013 5 year estimates 

BCG on Seattle's Global Competitiveness (RLC2015).pptx                                                                                              15

Puget Sound Regional Growth 
Annual Change in Jobs & People 







Office of Financial Management, Washington State Employment Security Department 

Change in Jobs          Net Migration 
16

Regional Population Projections 
Annual Net Change in Population 
Population in the                         Historic                Forecast 
central Puget Sound
region is expected to
pass 4.0 million in
about a year, and reach
4.2 million by 2020.

Community Attributes Inc., 2016; Puget Sound Regional Council, 2015.

Household Forecast, 2015-2018 




18

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