BCG Analysis
BOSTON CONSULTING clelV]y Washington State COVID-19 economic impact "Prepared at the request of UPDATED AS OF MAY 6, 2020 WASHINGTON ROUNDTABLE Updated as of May 6, 2020 Comparison to past recessions 'n Washington >850K Peak to trough >4X higher employment loss impact from COVID than recent WA state 189K economic shocks 85K reserved. (and still growing) rights All Group. Dozcom & Great Recession? COVID-19 Post-9/11" (lo-date)? Consulting Boston by 2020 1. Cumulative employment loss Dec 2000 - Mar 2002; 2. Cumulative employment loss Feb 2008 - Feb 2010; 3. Cumulative initial unemployment claims from March 1-April 25th Source: Washington State Employment Security Department; Washington State Office of Financial Management Copyright This slide is part of a larger presentation and should be viewed within the 'important context' set forth on slide 1 History suggests job recovery will take mt ltiple years Time toreturn to po\ntyrn period : Recovery period Economic shock Job loss pre-crisis peak Pre-crisis peak to trough Trough to pre-crisis peak Washington State -4 years 85K ~ 15 months + 33 months Dotcom & post-9/11 (48 months) Washington State ~5.5 years 1594 oh Nel =r Eon} = 24 months + 44 months (68 months) Louisiana ~2.5 years reserved. 80K 7 months le 21 months Post-Katrina (28 months) rights All New York State -6.5 yeas Group. _ Dotcom & post-9/11 2304 = 31 months + 46 months (77 months) Consulting Boston by 2020 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Bureau of Economic Analysis; BCG analysis Copyright This slide is part of a larger presentation and should be viewed within the 'important context' set forth on slide 1 Recovery from 'trough' is common.y gradua. aid uneven = rercent of jobs recovered - = Jo) loss 3 months 6 months 12 months Economic shoc" at 'trough' after 'trough' after 'trough' after 'trough' Washington State 85K UL 0 Dotcom & post-9/11 132 2; RAO = cm Og. A ar eal Implies >500K WA oii [ serve AE jobs not yet reserved. BEE Se et ; | 80K 16% 71% ue rights SPE, 27% recovered by All EE a = EERE RSS TBE BEntrh peneEEE nS early 2021 Group. New York State 230K 6% 6% 20% Dotcom & post-9/11 Consutting Boston by 2020 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Bureau of Economic Analysis; BCG analysis Copyright This slide is part of a larger presentation and should be viewed within the 'important context' set forth on slide 1
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