COVID-19 activity scenarios methodology
and latest update
October 8, 2020

Financial Planning Activity Scenarios:
Post COVID-19 approach
Inputs (data)                 Assumptions                Activity scenarios
Published advance airline            Time to return to 2019 (pre-        Multiple scenarios ("high,
schedules (seats)                      COVID-19) levels                    baseline, low")
Travel restrictions limiting              Shape, length, and extent           Passengers (domestic/int'l)
domestic and international              of a recovery                       Aircraft operations (also
activity                                     Passenger load factors                 informs landed weight)
Airline service                          (percent of occupied seats)         Benchmark to industry
announcements (additions,            trends                             recovery scenarios
reductions, aircraft mix)                Average aircraft size
Consultations with airline                (average seats per
and travel industry                       operation)
representatives
Post-recovery annual
growth trends (master plan)

September updates to 2020 & 2021 scenarios
DATA
Actual performance through August
Flight schedules (Sep. OAG + Q4 est. based on airline announcements)
Load factors (assumed gradual increase for remainder of 2020 informed by YTD history)
Fleet mix (used OAG and airline-reported trends to inform 2020)
SHAPE/PACE OF RECOVERY
Growth trajectory for Sep  Dec is flat/slow growth, representing
the latest guidance from airlines and other industry sources.
For 2021, growth loaded into second half of year, to better reflect
impact to travel demand of early- to mid-2021 vaccine distribution.

SEA seat capacity steady Aug thru Oct
Daily seats
WHO
pandemic
declaration
Capacity               No significant capacity changes
increase July
to August

Capacity low point
Rapid                (mid-Apr.  late May)
schedule
drawdown

Frequent, incremental
increases in Summer
schedule

Source: Official Airline Guide (Diio)

SEA daily screened volume largely flat since July
TSA screened volume is a proxy for SEA originating passenger demand; does not include
connecting passengers.
Screened volume



Little change in this period





Source: Transportation Security Administration (TSA)

Load factor declined with increased Aug. seat capacity
Load factor is percentage of seats occupied.
Load factor
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%                                               50%  Alaska Airlines
47%  All SEA airlines
40%
38%  Delta Air Lines
30%
20%
10%
0%
Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr    May    Jun     Jul     Aug
Source: calculated by BI from airline-reported and OAG schedule data.

Passenger recovery assumptions shifting
2021 recovery
focused in Q1 & Q2
Assumed steady
May            % diff. vs.                        recovery through
scenario      Year      2019                               2020
update       2020     -61%
2021     -30%


2021 recovery
focused in Q3 & Q4
Recovery stronger
in Q2,weaker in
September        % diff. vs.
Q3 & Q4
scenario      Year      2019
update       2020     -59%
2021     -29%

2020 SEA monthly passengers vs.2019
Actual                        Forecast
% change
vs. 2019


Year-end 2020
vs. 2019
All passengers         -59%
International only        -77%





8

Risks
Fall 2020 pandemic surge?
Will leisure travel demand make up for lack of business travel?
Capacity cuts as CARES funds expire Oct. 1.
Lifting of travel restrictions to int'l destinations.
Vaccine distribution timing in 2021?

Appendix


10

Slower recovery for airports with high int'l passenger share
SEA passenger recovery progressing more rapidly than U.S. peer airports (in the 40-60 million annual
passenger range) with a higher international passenger share.
Passengers
2019            Airport           2019 total  Aug 2020 2019 Int'l
rank 1  Name                   Code    (millions)   vs. 2019 2     share
6     Kennedy Int'l           JFK        62.6      -86%     55%
15   Miami Int'l             MIA        44.8      -78%     49%
14   Newark Liberty Int'l      EWR       45.9      -75%     31%
7     San Francisco Int'l      SFO       57.5      -86%     27%
16   Houston Intercontinental  IAH        44.8      -71%     25%
17   Boston Logan Int'l      BOS       42.5      -83%     20%
10   Orlando Int'l           MCO       50.6      -69%     14%
8     Seattle-Tacoma Int'l     SEA       51.8      -74%     11%
13   Phoenix Sky Harbor     PHX       46.3      -60%      8%
9     Las Vegas McCarran    LAS        51.5      -63%      7%
12   Charlotte-Douglas Int'l   CLT       50.0      -68%      7%
Notes:
1) Passenger activity rank among all North American airports.
2) Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoint throughput data used as a proxy for airport passenger activity.
Sources: airport websites (passenger data); TSA (checkpoint volume).

11

Projected Industry ScenariosDuration of the Recovery
Recovery to 2019 passenger traffic levels are projected in 2023 or 2024



Recovery to 2019
passenger traffic
levels are projected
in 2023 or 2024



12                                                                                      COVID-19 Pandemic
Recovery Scenarios