MINUTES EXHEBW g
\
Peri
CommissienigmL'
gaging0%
IPCC 5th Synthesis Report

RCP 2.6                    RCP 8.5
(a)        Change in average surface temperature (1986-2005 to 2081 -2100)




1-;' 
(C)
-2 1.5 -1  -O.5  O  0.5  1  1.5  2   3   4   5   7   9  11

"The'geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2
degrees C."     Christofe McGlade and Paul Ekins, Nature 14016
"Our results suggest that globally, a third of oil reserves.....should remain unused from 2010 to 2050 in order to meet the target of 2
degrees C.  Development of resources in the Arctic and any increase in unconventional oil production are incommensurate with efforts
to limit average global warming to 2 deg. C...."
"...[All] Arctic resources should be classified as unburnable."

I Conventional 2P reserves in production
Fig. 1(a) SUPPIV COSt curve for o"- This
a     OFSChedU'ed ' '     shows the amount of oil that is "burnable"
110
:E'iff'e't"  within a carbon budget that is likely to
A100
73                                                       hold the rise in average global temperature
90
u
'30:th    I 9  lg ht on.I 
.5 g                                            to no more than 2 degrees C.
80 . Mined natural bitumen
*5 g    I In situ natural bitumen
70 
.3 m    I Extra-heavy 
ThIs temperature limit IS the scent. . . . . 'f'Ica IIy
9 f 50 ~ Mined kerogen oil
0- 8 '
50                                     established threshold for dangerous climate
"' 
I {:17 iii" [kerosen-Oi'a ura gas
$53} _ . _ _ _40 liquid         disruptlon, and the baSIs of all International
{
8 2 30                               climate agreements, including the UN
Q 20                          Framework Convention and the
_|.                                                                                          Copenhagen Accord, to which the U.S. is a
CO                                           A                                      signatory.  Arctic drilling is well outside the
2,000  3,000   ,000  5,000
bounds of that commitment.
Remaining ultimately recoverable resources
(billions of barrels)