3b Panel 4
Economic Trends in the Puget Sound Region Port of Seattle Commission February 23, 2015 1 National GDP Growth Trend & Forecasts National GDP 2.5% 2.2% to 2.8% CAGR 2010-2015 Growth in 2016 2 Employment Change Trends & Forecast Central Puget Sound Region, Annual Growth Historic Forecast Community Attributes Inc., 2016 3 Employment Trends & Forecast Central Puget Sound Region, Non-farm Jobs Community Attributes Inc., 2016 Forecast growth of 1.4% per year between 2016-2020 2016 growth of 2.5%. 4 Puget Sound Regional Jobs, 1960-2015 Jobs (1,000s) Government Trade Construction Manufacturing Aerospace Washington State Employment Security Department 5 Regional employment driven by a few large employers Est. Regional Employees (K) 500K 461K 400K 286K 300K ~30% of Regional Jobs 200K 175K 100K 0K Direct Indirect Total Jobs Jobs 01 Seattle GCI- RLC Day 1- Benchmark Results vF-conf format.pptx 6 Strengths & Growth Central Puget Sound Region U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, WA State ESD 7 Employment Forecast, 2015-2018 8 Exports from the Greater Seattle Region, 2004-2014 U.S. Census Bureau; Brookings Institute; Trade Partnership; Community Attributes Inc. 9 In 2013, Seattle ranked 5th among peer cities for overall global competitiveness Human Business Capital & Global Infra- Overall Competitiveness Capital Environ. Innovation Connect. structure 70 San Francisco Singapore 60 Boston Amsterdam 4th 3rd 3rd 5th Seattle 50 Stockholm Melbourne 40 7th 6th Vancouver Hamburg 30 Source: BCG Analysis BCG on Seattle's Global Competitiveness (RLC2015).pptx 10 2015 city ranking update Ranking 2013 2015 #1 San Francisco Singapore #2 Singapore San Francisco #3 Boston Boston #4 Amsterdam Amsterdam #5 Seattle Stockholm #6 Stockholm Seattle #7 Melbourne Vancouver #8 Vancouver Melbourne #9 Hamburg Hamburg Source: BCG Analysis BCG on Seattle's Global Competitiveness (RLC2015).pptx 11 Our view of the most pressing issues Addressing variable K-12 outcomes Significant Leading the country in STEM-related education education gaps Doubling (or more) local STEM degree capacity Attracting & retaining mid-sized companies, HQ. Limited economic Keeping our innovative companies here diversity Stopping the export of job growth Creating and promoting a cohesive global brand Lack of global Attracting global businesses to meet and locate here presence Avoiding the "collapse of the middle" Income Driving 2x living wage jobs "for the rest of us" bifurcation Considering "outside the box" economic approaches Growth-limiting Investing in a regional transportation solution infrastructure Proactively managing sustainable growth gaps BCG on Seattle's Global Competitiveness (RLC2015).pptx 12 Seattle's income disparity growing faster than notably striated cities such as New York Gini coefficient in Seattle approaching that of New York... Gini coefficient 1999 2009 Seattle 0.39 0.48 New York 0.48 0.54 Source: US Census, Harvard School of Public Health, King County BCG on Seattle's Global Competitiveness (RLC2015).pptx 13 Today Middle income jobs declined from 2005-2013 2005 2009 Middle Income 35-75K of annual income Percent of total jobs 2013 30% 20% 10% 0% $1 to $15K or less $15K to $25K $25K to $35K $35K to $50K $50K to $65K $65 to $75K $75K to $100K $100K or more "Working Income Jobs" "Middle Income Jobs" "Upper Income Jobs" Food prep and serving Production occupations - Management and Examples occupations ($18K) machinists, welders ($35K) financial occupations ($76K) Material moving Construction occupations occupations ($23K) ($39K) Eng. & Tech. occupations ($87K) Source: US Census Bureau, American Census Survey, King County, Full-time, year-round workers with earnings, 2009 5 year estimates, 2013 5 year estimates, 2005 estimates BCG on Seattle's Global Competitiveness (RLC2015).pptx 14 Today Significant changes within a few job categories Low Income Middle Income High Income 421K jobs ( 09' +20K jobs) 347K jobs (09' -7K jobs) 263K jobs (09'+18K jobs) $27K median income $49K median income $87K median income Transportation Operations Eng. & Tech. +37% (business and +13% occupations +19% financial) Personal care and Sales and related Healthcare services -3% +18% occupations +6% Healthcare support Life, physical, and Management and social science -12% financial +18% occupations +5% occupations Office and -6% Construction -22% administrative Source: US Census Bureau, American Census Survey, King County, All civilian workers above age 16, 2013 5 year estimates BCG on Seattle's Global Competitiveness (RLC2015).pptx 15 Puget Sound Regional Growth Annual Change in Jobs & People Office of Financial Management, Washington State Employment Security Department Change in Jobs Net Migration 16 Regional Population Projections Annual Net Change in Population Population in the Historic Forecast central Puget Sound region is expected to pass 4.0 million in about a year, and reach 4.2 million by 2020. Community Attributes Inc., 2016; Puget Sound Regional Council, 2015. Household Forecast, 2015-2018 18
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