Exhibit B
SODO Arena EIS Economic Analysis and Site Comparison Review JRC Consulting September 24, 2013 Randy Cerf, JRC Consulting 1 Economic Analysis & Site Comparisons are unambiguously flawed Fails to provide any meaningful data to compare site impacts Reaches absurd conclusions that contradict the economic research Clear and incontrovertible bias Dozens of errors understating costs and exaggerating benefits of SODO Arena Zero errors the other way September 24, 2013 Randy Cerf, JRC Consulting 2 EIS Claims Arena Taxes as City Benefit Schools, Public BLOCKED Arena Safety, Parks, Taxes Administration Debt Service Ignoring diversion to debt service Several other tax and city cost issues ignored as well Page 3 Five critical factors that differentiate SODO site not assessed in EIS 1. Will Arena lead to a loss of business and/or jobs at Port or SODO or Ballard or lower Queen Anne? In EIS, Extra time spent in traffic by a few truckers is called, "the upper limit of the 2. What mitigation investment would be potential impact on the Port" required to offset traffic impact? Would infrastructure timetable be accelerated displacing other City spending? Assess amplified marginal effects. 3. Would economic viability of Key Arena be Don't just say, "it is already a mess threatened? so don't look at us." 4. Weigh number and nature of jobs that are created vs. lost? (Other than partial and 100 more cars does not 100 more cars incorrect analysis under substitution) matter does matter 5. Does Arena traffic discourage others from patronizing Pioneer Square or Downtown? September 24, 2013 Randy Cerf, JRC Consulting 4 Research Consensus Ignored or Disparaged "Few fields of empirical economic research offer virtual unanimity of findings. (Research has) uniformly found that there is no statistically significant positive correlation between sports facility construction and economic development" (Baade and Dye, 1990; Baim, 1992; Rosentraub, 1994; Baade, 1996; Noll and Zimbalist, 1997; Waldon,1997; Coates and Humphreys, 1999) .Journal of Economic PerspectivesVolume 14, Number 3Summer 2000Pages 95114 "There are also an overwhelming number of academic studies that show little or no economic benefits of sport facility subsidization." "The Economic Impact of Sports Facilities" Why do sports arenas generally fail to boost the regional economies? About 60% of NBA franchise revenue goes to about 16 people. Very little of that money is spent in Seattle Except for $$$ spent by out-of-towners visiting for sports, most revenue displaces spending at other businesses Displaced revenue recirculates more effectively than Arena/Franchise revenue. Substitution therefore has an amplified negative impact Instead EIS concludes $230-$260 million of incremental annual economic activity earning an incredible $103 million for Seattle alone! The most profitable collection of businesses in US History! . September 24, 2013 Randy Cerf, JRC Consulting 5 No independent study of alternatives EIS is flawed The only intelligent comment on EIS: EIS is thick so it has to be valid Begin again. Give the Port and the public a reasonable starting point to comment on. The Port has the responsibility to demand clean analysis. Until the City provides it: Ignore EIS conclusions Seek out alternative data 6 September 24, 2013 Randy Cerf, JRC Consulting
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