9b Sustainable Airport Master Plan Briefing Memo
COMMISSION AGENDA MEMORANDUM Item No. 9b BRIEFING ITEM Date of Meeting January 28, 2020 DATE: January 15, 2020 TO: Stephen P. Metruck, Executive Director FROM: Arlyn Purcell, Director, Aviation Environment and Sustainability Steve Rybolt, Sr. Environmental Program Manager, Aviation Environment and Sustainability SUBJECT: Sustainable Airport Master Plan (SAMP) Near-Term Projects (NTP) Environmental Review Briefing Forecast and Schedule Update EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This briefing will provide an overview of the results of the forecast update conducted for the Sustainable Airport Master Plan (SAMP) Near-Term Projects environmental review and the current schedule. SUSTAINABLE AIRPORT MASTER PLAN NEAR-TERM PROJECTS ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW The Port of Seattle prepared the SAMP as a blueprint for changes at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (Sea-Tac Airport) to meet future demand. The SAMP planning process was completed in 2018 and identified a set of Near-Term Projects (NTP) that are planned for construction by 2027 as well as a Long-Term Vision. The NTP are the subject of this environmental review and include more than 30 projects that would improve efficiency, safety, access to the Airport, and support facilities for airlines and the Airport. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) initiated a National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Environmental Assessment (EA) and the Port of Seattle (Port) initiated a State Environmental Policy Act (SEPA) Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) to evaluate and disclose the potential environmental effects of the NTP. Scoping, one of the first steps in the SAMP NTP environmental review, was completed on September 28, 2018. Scoping is an early and open process for determining the scope of issues that will be addressed in the environmental review document, soliciting input regarding the NTP and reasonable alternatives, and identifying concerns regarding the potential environmental effects of the NTP. The resulting comments provided valuable input that led to several changes to the SAMP NTP environmental review scope. One key outcome of the scoping process was a decision to review and update the forecast originally developed in 2015 as part of the SAMP planning work. Template revised April 12, 2018. COMMISSION AGENDA Briefing Item No. 9b Page 2 of 3 Meeting Date: January 28, 2020 FORECAST UPDATE The SAMP forecasts for Sea-Tac Airport were completed in 2015 using 2014 as the base year. Since then, strong economic growth, lower airfares, and airline competition drove passenger traffic to rise faster than originally forecast. Passenger volume at SEA increased by 40 percent between 2014-2018. The updated demand forecast shows that the airport will reach the 2027 forecast activity levels for operations by approximately 2022, five years sooner than originally projected, and for passenger activity by 2023. However, this forecast only considers demand for services and does not consider airport constraints such as the availability of gates and aircraft parking. Gate and aircraft parking constraints will likely limit substantial activity increases at the airport beyond 2023. In response, the Port, in collaboration with the FAA, developed estimates to illustrate slower growth scenarios based on facility constraints. There are separate scenarios for activity with and without the proposed NTP. This constrained operating growth scenarios will be used as the basis for the SAMP NTP environmental review analysis. The FAA approved the updated 2019 demand forecast and concurred with the constrained operating growth scenarios on January 10, 2020. 2027 2032 Aircraft Passengers Aircraft Passengers Operations (millions) Operations (millions) SAMP Demand 477,000 56.0 527,000 63.0 Forecast (2015) SAMP Updated Demand 520,000 61.1 557,000 68.2 Forecast (2019) No Action Constrained 499,000 58.1 506,000 60.7 Scenario Proposed Action Constrained 508,000 59.2 524,000 63.1 Scenario Table 1 SAMP Demand Forecasts and Constrained Scenarios The table above shows both forecast activity demand and constrained growth scenarios. The SAMP Demand Forecast [2015] and SAMP Updated Demand Forecast [2019] are based on market demand and do not assume specific assumptions about physical, regulatory, environmental or other impediments to aviation activity growth. Conversely, the constrained growth scenarios represent known barriers to growth at Sea-Tac Airport. Template revised September 22, 2016. COMMISSION AGENDA Briefing Item No. 9b Page 3 of 3 Meeting Date: January 28, 2020 EXTENDED SCHEDULE The forecast update and other scope changes have resulted in an extension of the schedule: Update to the demand forecast and development of constrained operating growth scenarios Continued advanced planning coordination Additional technical environmental analysis, in response to scoping comments Separation of the NEPA and SEPA documents and processes Continued extensive stakeholder engagement and community outreach Key milestones include: Oct. 2020 NEPA EA draft document released for agency and public review Nov. 2020 NEPA EA agency and public review complete Apr. 2021 NEPA EA final document and decision May 2021 SEPA EIS draft document released for agency and public review Jul. 2021 SEPA EIS agency and public review complete Sep. 2021 SEPA EIS final document ATTACHMENTS TO THIS BRIEFING (1) Sustainable Airport Master Plan (SAMP) Near-Term Projects (NTP) Environmental Review Briefing Updated Forecast and Schedule PowerPoint presentation PREVIOUS COMMISSION ACTIONS OR BRIEFINGS February 26, 2019 Commission Briefing: "Sustainable Airport Master Plan (SAMP) Near- Term Projects (NTP) Environmental Review Briefing Scoping Report" May 8, 2018 Commission Briefing: "Sustainable Airport Master Plan (SAMP) Planning and Environmental Update" February 13, 2018 - Commission Briefing: "Sustainable Airport Master Plan (SAMP) Planning Update" November 10, 2015 Commission Action: "Environmental Review (National Environmental Policy Act and State Environmental Policy Act) Personal Services Agreement for the Sustainable Airport Master Plan" Template revised September 22, 2016.
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