Washington State Economic Analysis
Economic & Revenue Update Economic and Revenue Forecast Council May 15, 2020 Summary U.S. employment decreased by 20.5 million jobs in April; the unemployment rate rose to 14.7%. Real U.S. GDP growth declined 4.8% in the first quarter. The decline in Washington employment in April was unprecedented. The ISM-WW Index declined further into negative territory. Washington car and truck sales plummeted to the lowest level in the history of the series. This is the first collection report to show large negative revenue impacts from the COVID-19-related economic shutdowns. Major General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue collections for the April 11 - May 10, 2020 collection period came in $434.6 million (22.5%) lower than the February forecast. About half of this month's shortfall was due to DOR-approved deferrals of payments for a large number of monthly filers and all quarterly filers. These payments, totaling approximately $200 million, are expected to arrive before the end of June. Cumulatively, collections since February 11 are now $428.5 million (8.7%) below the forecast. Adjusted for the deferred payments, the cumulative shortfall is approximately $229 million (4.7%). United States administrative and support services (-1.5 million), health care (-1.4 million), manufacturing (-1.3 Almost all economic data were negative this million), arts, entertainment and recreation (-1.3 month. Nationally, the labor market saw the million), other services (-1.3 million), unemployment rate reach its highest level in the construction (-1.0 million) and local government history of the series which dates back to January (-0.8 million). 1948. Residential construction and sales weakened, manufacturing activity contracted and Initial claims for unemployment insurance construction and service sectors slowed. decreased 4,000 to 211,000 (SA) in the week ending March 7th. The four-week moving average National employment fell by 20.5 million net jobs of initial claims increased by 1,250 to 214,000. in April, reflecting the impacts of business Layoff announcements in April, as tracked by closures and other measures related to the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray, and containment of COVID-19. Employment data for Christmas, totaled 671,129, the highest monthly February and March were revised down by total in the history of the series which dates back 214,000 jobs. Sectors with the largest job losses to January 1993. The COVID-19 pandemic was in April included accommodation and food service responsible for 633,082 of these job cuts. (-6.3 million), retail trade (-2.1 million), Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Page 1 Average hourly earnings increased by $1.34 in vehicles (SAAR) sold in March is the lowest April. This increase is largely due to the monthly total since April 2010. disproportionate job loss among low-wage workers rather than an increase in wages. The Residential construction and home sales data average workweek in April increased 0.1 hours to were all weaker this month. Housing units 34.2 hours. The unemployment rate in April was authorized by building permits in March were 14.7%, 10.3 percentage points above the March 6.8% (SA) below their February level but 5.0% rate of 4.4%. above their year-ago level. March housing starts decreased by 22.3% (SA) compared to February The first estimate of real U.S. GDP growth for the but were 1.4% above their March 2019 level. first quarter of 2020 was a decrease of 4.8% New home sales in March decreased by 15.4% (SAAR), with declines in personal consumption (SA) compared to February and were 9.5% below expenditures, nonresidential fixed investment and their year-ago level. Existing home sales in exports (see figure). In the fourth quarter of March decreased by 8.5% (SA) compared to 2019, real GDP grew by 2.1%. February but were up 0.8% compared to March 2019. The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller GDP growth has plummeted national home price index for February was 0.5% 4 above its January level and 4.1% above its year- 3 ago level. 2 Percent, SAAR 1 April consumer confidence indicators posted sharp 0 declines. The Conference Board index of -1 consumer confidence decreased by 31.9 points in -2 April to 86.9. The record decline in consumers' -3 assessment of current economic conditions was -4 partially offset by an improvement in the short- -5 term outlook for jobs and financial prospects, -6 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 likely prompted by the expectation that stay-athome restrictions will be relaxed in the near future. The University of Michigan (UM) Manufacturing activity, already slowing in March, consumer sentiment index decreased by 17.3 contracted further in April. The Institute for points to 71.8 in April. This is the lowest level for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers Index the index since December 2011. (PMI) decreased by 7.6 points to 41.5 (50 or higher indicates growth). The non-manufacturing Petroleum spot prices dropped during April but PMI for April was 41.8, 10.7 points below the recovered somewhat in the last two weeks. For March reading. This breaks a string of 122 the week ending May 8th, U.S. benchmark West consecutive months above 50 for the non- Texas Intermediate was $23 per barrel, manufacturing index. essentially unchanged from a month earlier but well above its recent low point of $3 in late April. Industrial production in March decreased by 5.4% European benchmark Brent fell to $14 per barrel (SA) compared to February. Over the year, in late April before rising to $24 per barrel for the industrial production is down by 5.5% (SA). New week ending May 8th, $1 higher than during the orders for core capital goods (i.e., durables week of April 10th. Gasoline prices were excluding aircraft and military), which is a proxy unchanged between April 13th and May 11th at for business investment, decreased by 0.1% (SA) $1.85 per gallon (regular, all formulations). in March following a 0.7% decrease in February according to U.S. Census Bureau data. The American Trucking Association's truck tonnage index increased 1.2% (SA) in March Light motor vehicle (autos and light trucks) sales following a 1.8% (SA) increase in February. The in March decreased by 32.2% (SA) from February index is 4.3% above its year-ago level. Rail and fell by 34.2% over the year. The 11.4 million carloads for April were 12.6% (SA) below their Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Page 2 March level and 24.7% below their year-ago year-over-year declines in the previous three level. Intermodal rail units (shipping containers months. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home or truck trailers) were 7.1% (SA) below their Price Indices, seasonally adjusted Seattle home March level and 16.9% below their April 2019 prices increased 0.8% in February, the tenth level. consecutive monthly increase. Because of the Washington strong growth in the last several months, February Seattle home prices were up 5.9% over the year. In comparison, the composite-20 index The decline in Washington employment in April was up 3.4% over the year. February Seattle was unprecedented in its depth and speed (see home prices were up 100% since the December figure). We have four months of new Washington 2011 trough and exceeded the May 2007 peak by employment data since the February forecast was 39%. released. Total nonfarm payroll employment fell 453,000 (seasonally adjusted) in April and Seattle-area consumer price inflation exceeded 446,200 in the four-month period. The February the national average due mostly to the volatile forecast expected an increase of 27,500 in food and energy components. From April 2019 to January, February, March, and April. Private April 2020, the Seattle CPI rose 1.3% compared services-providing sectors lost 359,300 jobs in to a 0.4% increase in the U.S. City Average the four-month period. Construction employment index. Energy prices fell less in Seattle than declined by 47,200 jobs and manufacturing elsewhere and food prices rose more. Core declined by 27,700 jobs including the loss of prices, which exclude food and energy, increased 8,300 aerospace jobs. Government payrolls 1.6% over the year in Seattle compared to 1.4% declined by 11,100 jobs in January, February, for the U.S. City Average. Over-the-year shelter- March, and April. cost inflation in Seattle was 3.1% compared to the national rate of 2.6%. Seattle inflation The job loss in April was unprecedented excluding shelter exceeded the national average 3,600 at 0.3% compared to -0.7%. 3,400 3,200 Washington exports declined over the year for a sixth consecutive quarter. Year-over-year Thousands 3,000 exports decreased 35.1% in the first quarter of 2,800 2020. The large decline was mostly because of 2,600 transportation equipment exports (mostly Boeing 2,400 planes) which fell 59.2% over the year. Boeing suspended deliveries of the 737 Max in March 2,200 2019. First quarter exports of agricultural 2,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 products decreased 21.3% over the year and exports of all other commodities (mostly manufacturing) declined 5.7% over the year. Washington housing construction slowed in the first quarter of 2020 but still exceeded the The Institute of Supply Management - Western February forecast. In the first quarter, 49,800 Washington Index (ISM-WW) declined further into units (SAAR) were permitted, down from 54,400 negative territory in April. The index, which in the fourth quarter of 2019. First quarter measures conditions in the manufacturing sector, permits consisted of 24,800 single-family units declined from 52.0 in February to 46.0 in March and 25,000 multi-family units. The February and 38.5 in April (index values above 50 indicate forecast assumed an average rate of 44,900 growth while values below 50 indicate (SAAR) units for the first quarter consisting of contraction). The production, orders, 23,700 single-family units and 21,200 multi- employment, and inventory components all family units. indicated contraction in April. As in March, only the deliveries components indicated expansion, Seattle-area home prices rose over the year for a however this is misleading. A slowing of seventh consecutive month in February following deliveries is a plus for the index as it normally Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Page 3 reflects strong demand. In the current context deferrals, collections decreased 7.1% year over the slowing of vendor deliveries is due to supply year (see figure). The 12-month moving average disruptions. of year-over-year growth decreased to 5.5%. Even adjusted for the deferrals, seasonally Washington car and truck sales plummeted to the adjusted collections dropped sharply (see figure). lowest level in the history of the series which dates Cumulatively, collections are now $436.0 million back to July 1970. The seasonally adjusted number (10.3%) lower than forecasted. Adjusted for the of new vehicle registrations fell 63.5% from March estimated deferred payments, cumulative to April and 68.9% over the year. collections are approximately $236 million (5.6%) lower than forecasted. Revenue Seasonally adjusted Revenue Act receipts Overview 1.6 1.5 This is the first collection report to show large 1.4 1.3 negative revenue impacts from the COVID-19- 1.2 related economic shutdowns. Major General $Billions 1.1 Fund-State (GF-S) revenue collections for the 1.0 April 11 - May 10, 2020 collection period came in 0.9 $434.6 million (22.5%) lower than the February 0.8 forecast. About half of this month's shortfall, 0.7 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 however, was due to DOR-approved deferrals of Revenue Act Revenue 3-Month Moving Average payments for a large number of monthly filers January 2004 through March 2020 activity and all quarterly filers. These payments, totaling Current definition, adjusted for large payments/refunds and deferred April 2020 payments approximately $200 million, are expected to arrive before the end of June. Cumulatively, Seasonally adjusted Revenue Act receipts collections since February 11 are now $428.5 1.6 million (8.7%) below the forecast. Adjusted for 1.5 the deferred payments, the cumulative shortfall is 1.4 approximately $229 million (4.7%). $Billions 1.3 1.2 1.1 Revenue Act 1.0 0.9 Revenue Act taxes consist of the sales, use, 0.8 business and occupation (B&O), utility, and 0.7 tobacco products taxes along with associated 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 penalty and interest payments. The revenue Revenue Act Revenue 3-Month Moving Average January 2004 through March 2020 activity collections reported here are for the April 11 Current definition, adjusted for large payments/refunds and deferred April 2020 payments May 10, 2020 collection period. Collections correspond primarily to the March 2020 economic As shown in the "Key Revenue Variables" table, activity of monthly filers and first quarter 2020 unadjusted Revenue Act collections fell 21.1% activity of quarterly filers. year over year. Retail sales tax collections dropped 20.8% year over year and B&O tax Revenue Act collections for the current period collections shrank 15.7% year over year. came in $406.9 million (25.6%) below the February forecast. Approximately $200 million of Total tax payments as of May 1 from electronic shortfall, however, was due to DOR-approved filers who also filed returns in the April 11 May deferrals of payments for a large number of 10, 2019 period were down 1.4% year over year monthly filers and all quarterly filers. The (payments are mainly Revenue Act taxes but deferred payments are expected to arrive before include some non-Revenue Act taxes as well). the end of June. Without the deferred payments, Last month payments were up 13.2% year over collections would have been $206.9 million year due to last year's heavy snows. Some (13.0%) lower than forecasted. Adjusted for the details of payments from electronic filers: Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Page 4 Total payments in the retail trade sector were DOR Non-Revenue Act down 4.7% year over year. Last month, April DOR non-Revenue Act collections came in payments were up 14.4% year over year. $27.3 million (8.2%) lower than forecasted. Cumulatively, however, collections are now $8.0 Payments from the motor vehicles and parts million (1.2%) higher than forecasted. sector decreased by 34.0% year over year. Last month, payments in the sector grew The largest contributor to this month's shortfall 17.5% year over year. was real estate excise tax (REET) collections, which came in $12.4 million (8.2%) lower than Retail trade sectors showing strong year-overforecasted. While the drop in seasonally adjusted year growth were food and beverage stores sales from last month was considerable (see (+25.5%), nonstore retailers (+12.2%), figure), it was tempered by sales that, while building materials and garden supplies reported in April, were initiated in March before (+9.1%), electronics and appliances (+8.8%) the bulk of the virus-related shutdowns. and general merchandise stores (+8.6%). Reported sales of large commercial property (property valued at $10 million or more) totaled Besides autos, three retail sectors showed $299 million, down from last month's total of declining year-over-year payments: apparel $633 million. Cumulatively, REET collections are and accessories (-44.4%), furniture and home still $21.3 million (12.7%) higher than forecasted. furnishings (-13.8%) and sporting goods, toys, books, and music (-11.1%). April REET activity declined due to COVID-19 shutdowns Payments from non-retail trade sectors 14 increased 0.4% year over year in the current 12 period. Last month, year-over-year payments increased 12.6%. 10 8 Tax payments by businesses in the 6 accommodation and food services sector shrank by 35.2% year over year. Last month Activity, $billions SA 4 receipts from the sector increased 17.3% year 2 over year. 0 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 Payments from the manufacturing sector Source: ERFC, data through April 2020 estimated activity decreased by 6.0% year over year. Last month payments increased 17.1% year over Property tax collections came in $9.4 million year. This month saw a moderate decrease in (4.8%) lower than forecasted. Cumulatively, payments from the petroleum refining sector, collections are now $3.5 million (1.3%) lower due to both a year-over-year decrease in oil than forecasted. prices and a decrease in sales volume. The month also saw a large decrease in payments Liquor taxes came in $0.1 million (0.6%) higher from the transportation equipment sector. than forecasted. Cumulatively, receipts are now Excluding the transportation and petroleum $1.6 million (2.3%) higher than forecasted. sectors, payments from the remaining manufacturing sectors decreased by 6.9% Cigarette tax receipts came in $2.7 million year over year after increasing 7.5% last (10.3%) higher than forecasted. Cumulatively, month. however, receipts are now $2.3 million (3.2%) lower than forecasted. Tax payments by businesses in the construction sector increased 6.7% year Net refunds of unclaimed property from the GF-S over year. Last month receipts from the were $3.3 million higher than forecasted. construction sector increased 9.8% year Cumulatively, net refunds are now $6.3 million over year. higher than forecasted. Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Page 5 Net refunds of unclaimed property from the GF-S were $3.3 million higher than forecasted. Cumulatively, net refunds are now $6.3 million higher than forecasted. All other DOR revenue came in $5.1 million (27.5%) lower than forecasted, with shortfalls in a large number of sources. Cumulatively, collections are now $2.6 million (2.6%) lower than forecasted. Other Revenue Revenue from the Administrative Office of the Courts came in $0.4 million (7.1%) lower than forecasted. Cumulatively, revenue is now $0.5 million (3.2%) lower than forecasted. Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Page 6 Key U.S. Economic Variables 2019 2020 Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. 2018 2019 Real GDP (SAAR) - 2.1 - - -4.8 - 2.9 2.3 Industrial Production (SA, 2007 = 100) 110.0 109.6 109.1 109.3 104.3 92.6 108.6 109.5 YOY % Change -0.4 -0.8 -0.9 -0.3 -4.9 -15.0 3.9 0.9 ISM Manufacturing Index (50+ = growth) 48.1 47.2 50.9 50.1 49.1 41.5 58.8 51.2 ISM Non-Manuf. Index (50+ = growth) 53.9 54.9 55.5 57.3 52.5 41.8 58.9 55.6 Housing Starts (SAAR, 000) 1,381 1,601 1,619 1,564 1,216 - 1,250 1,290 YOY % Change 14.9 40.2 25.4 36.1 1.4 - 3.9 3.2 Light Motor Vehicle Sales (SAAR, mil.) 17.0 16.6 16.9 16.8 11.4 8.6 17.2 16.9 YOY % Change -2.3 -4.2 1.3 1.4 -34.2 -47.9 0.5 -1.9 CPI (SA, 1982-84 = 100) 257.8 258.4 258.8 259.1 258.0 255.9 251.1 255.7 YOY % Change 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.3 1.5 0.4 2.4 1.8 Core CPI (SA, 1982-84 = 100) 265.5 265.8 266.5 267.1 266.8 265.6 257.6 263.2 YOY % Change 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.1 1.4 2.1 2.2 IPD for Consumption (2009=100) 110.2 110.5 110.7 110.8 110.5 - 108.1 109.7 YOY % Change 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.3 - 2.1 1.4 Nonfarm Payroll Empl., e-o-p (SA, mil.) 151.8 152.0 152.2 152.5 151.6 131.0 149.9 152.0 Monthly Change 0.26 0.18 0.21 0.25 -0.88 -20.54 2.31 2.13 Unemployment Rate (SA, percent) 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5 4.4 14.7 3.9 3.7 Yield on 10-Year Treasury Note (percent) 1.81 1.86 1.76 1.50 0.87 0.66 2.91 2.14 Yield on 3-Month Treasury Bill (percent) 1.57 1.57 1.55 1.54 0.30 0.14 1.97 2.10 Broad Real USD Index** (Jan. 2006=100) 107.7 107.0 106.4 107.7 111.7 113.8 104.1 107.1 Federal Budget Deficit ($ bil.)* 208.8 13.3 32.6 235.3 119.0 737.9 779.0 984.4 FYTD sum 343.3 356.6 389.2 624.5 743.5 1,481.3 US Trade Balance ($ bil.) -43.8 -48.6 -45.5 -39.8 -44.4 - -627.7 -616.4 YTD Sum -567.8 -616.4 -45.5 -85.3 -129.7 - *Federal Fiscal Year runs from October 1st to September 30th. **Weighted average of U.S. dollar foreign exchange values against currencies of major U.S. trading partners, Federal Reserve. Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Page 7 Economic and RevenueForecast Council Key Washington Economic Variables 2019 2020 Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. 2018 2019 Employment End-of-period Total Nonfarm (SA, 000) 3,494.3 3,503.5 3,513.4 3,519.6 3,510.3 3,057.3 3,431.5 3,503.5 Change from Previous Month (000) 9.0 9.2 9.9 6.2 -9.3 -453.0 72.8 71.9 Construction 221.8 222.1 223.0 226.3 224.9 174.9 218.7 222.1 Change from Previous Month 1.0 0.3 0.9 3.3 -1.4 -50.1 13.3 3.4 Manufacturing 293.3 293.6 292.7 292.8 290.6 265.9 293.0 293.6 Change from Previous Month 0.9 0.3 -0.9 0.1 -2.2 -24.7 9.5 0.6 Aerospace 88.8 89.5 89.0 88.2 87.6 81.2 86.4 89.5 Change from Previous Month 0.3 0.7 -0.5 -0.8 -0.6 -6.5 4.6 3.0 Software 71.9 72.3 72.5 73.4 73.6 70.0 67.4 72.3 Change from Previous Month 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.2 -3.5 4.6 4.9 All Other 2,907.4 2,915.5 2,925.1 2,927.1 2,921.2 2,546.5 2,852.4 2,915.5 Change from Previous Month 6.6 8.1 9.7 2.0 -5.9 -374.7 45.4 63.1 Other Indicators Annual Average Seattle CPI (1982-84=100, NSA) - 279.4 - 282.1 - 280.5 271.1 277.9 - 2.2% - 2.5% - 1.3% 3.2% 2.5% Housing Permits (SAAR, 000) 61.5 56.8 54.1 50.8 44.5 - 44.2 48.3 34.1% 17.3% 28.9% 45.4% -14.7% - -1.1% 9.3% WA Index of Leading Ind. (2004=100) 129.7 130.2 129.0 129.4 120.3 - 127.4 128.8 1.7% 1.8% 0.8% 2.8% -6.7% - 2.7% 1.1% WA Business Cycle Ind. (Trend=50) 77.9 80.5 76.3 77.8 72.3 - 77.1 77.1 -0.2% 3.9% -1.4% 5.8% -5.3% - 6.9% 0.0% Avg. Weekly Hours in Manuf. (SA) 42.6 42.9 41.7 42.1 41.2 - 42.3 42.6 -0.4% 0.0% -2.4% 3.1% -4.5% - 1.5% 0.6% Avg. Hourly Earnings in Manuf. 29.8 30.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 - 28.4 29.3 3.1% 2.6% -0.3% -2.3% -2.5% - 3.8% 3.1% New Vehicle Registrations (SA, 000) 23.2 22.8 23.3 24.3 21.5 7.8 25.0 23.7 -13.1% -7.6% -5.7% 8.0% -11.9% -68.9% -1.4% -5.2% Initial Unemployment Claims (SA, 000) 27.0 28.5 31.3 26.4 425.2 513.0 26.3 28.5 -2.4% 11.4% 5.0% -30.3% 1450.7% 1740.8% -2.0% 8.3% Personal Income (SAAR, $bil.) - 502.1 - - - - 467.4 494.2 - 5.6% - - - - 7.5% 5.7% Median Home Price ($000) - 396.9 - - - - 364.7 395.7 - 11.5% - - - - 5.9% 8.5% *Employment data has been Kalman filtered and does not match figures released by the BLS *Percentage Change is Year-over-Year Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Page 8 Key Revenue Variables Thousands of Dollars 2019 2020 Apr 11- May 11- Jun 11- Jul 11- Aug 11- Sep 11- Oct 11- Nov 11- Dec 11- Jan 11- Feb 11- Mar 11- Apr 11- May 10 June 10 Jul 10 Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 Apr 10 May 10 Department of Revenue-Total 1,819,578 2,828,506 1,788,601 1,740,100 1,664,931 1,669,398 1,911,881 2,929,650 1,842,924 1,846,892 1,522,387 1,454,131 1,490,063 3.1 1.6 0.5 1.2 5.6 6.4 6.6 56.0 9.6 0.4 7.0 5.8 -18.1 Revenue Act 1,500,886 1,357,118 1,367,350 1,616,406 1,486,401 1,495,620 1,562,158 1,503,491 1,423,208 1,685,712 1,339,368 1,260,442 1,184,718 3.1 7.6 2.0 6.3 7.0 7.0 5.7 6.2 6.4 0.9 6.2 8.0 -21.1 Retail Sales Tax 964,737 907,741 941,300 1,075,554 993,590 1,009,745 1,040,129 985,246 950,720 1,117,362 862,669 757,294 763,803 3.1 9.2 5.2 7.0 6.6 7.3 6.4 6.3 5.9 7.2 4.9 0.2 -20.8 Business and Occupation Tax 406,947 352,276 336,474 428,944 375,192 375,531 413,841 404,396 386,709 456,130 357,309 380,128 343,195 4.0 8.5 -1.1 7.0 8.6 5.3 4.7 11.0 13.3 -7.3 5.9 26.2 -15.7 Use Tax 66,646 48,519 67,310 70,648 66,505 59,707 62,048 66,837 51,185 61,309 62,354 52,701 40,803 3.1 -13.5 10.0 17.0 9.0 11.3 1.7 -12.1 -21.9 -27.5 9.9 -6.7 -38.8 Public Utility Tax 45,075 35,415 34,296 34,204 31,224 33,101 29,952 24,115 19,276 33,511 42,140 41,429 28,781 -5.3 -1.2 3.2 2.9 -3.1 -6.6 -9.6 27.5 4.5 -5.5 8.7 -0.5 -36.1 Tobacco Products Tax 11,369 4,286 6,635 2,870 8,080 2,147 5,031 8,109 2,233 6,384 2,471 3,823 3,499 194.4 -34.5 125.2 -70.4 180.5 -31.4 -18.2 208.4 -9.5 123.5 -0.5 -40.1 -69.2 Penalties and Interest 6,112 8,881 -18,666 4,187 11,809 15,390 11,158 14,787 13,085 11,016 12,427 25,067 4,637 -54.1 40.5 -324.7 -61.1 -24.5 100.9 116.1 -46.8 14.2 -22.3 225.8 310.2 -24.1 Non-Revenue Act* 318,692 1,471,387 421,251 123,694 178,530 173,778 349,723 1,426,159 419,715 161,180 183,019 193,690 305,345 3.2 -3.4 -4.1 -37.7 -4.5 1.7 10.8 209.1 22.1 -4.8 13.0 -6.4 -4.2 Liquor Sales/Liter 22,156 21,658 24,790 24,216 28,592 24,327 22,959 24,162 24,751 35,389 22,906 20,278 25,200 -24.6 7.5 5.4 4.8 10.4 -1.2 6.2 5.0 3.9 5.0 4.1 -6.5 13.7 Cigarette 27,788 32,557 23,475 32,690 24,133 29,652 33,699 22,676 32,480 32,443 19,206 20,322 29,322 8.8 -6.0 -7.1 -6.6 -34.8 8.0 4.8 -22.9 10.9 7.6 -3.8 -4.6 5.5 Property (State School Levy) 160,233 1,315,310 258,619 -67,207 12,035 16,322 64,191 1,234,712 187,782 14,282 6,982 71,558 186,427 8.3 -0.1 0.9 -519.0 5.0 -9.5 43.0 300.1 -4.1 19.4 -9.4 34.2 16.3 Real Estate Excise 95,231 91,832 110,780 125,943 99,598 95,704 115,092 100,115 168,072 59,577 55,533 78,457 54,836 13.7 -7.0 -2.6 10.6 -7.5 10.5 3.8 39.6 91.9 -25.7 -7.5 1.3 -42.4 Unclaimed Property -6,216 -3,737 -6,907 -5,754 -185 -895 99,873 28,258 -2,628 2,517 560 -4,673 -3,985 -429.6 -146.8 67.9 -10.3 -96.0 -117.3 17.0 39.6 40.8 -217.1 -121.7 -538.4 -35.9 Other 19,500 13,768 10,494 13,806 14,357 8,668 13,909 16,236 9,258 16,973 77,831 7,747 13,546 -4.2 -69.9 -57.5 -18.0 53.1 -3.7 -33.2 94.9 4.0 9.9 42.1 -75.9 -30.5 Administrative Office of the Courts* 6,425 6,098 7,074 4,991 6,220 5,860 5,952 6,343 5,138 5,682 4,929 4,810 5,750 -9.5 -7.9 9.6 -18.5 -6.9 -6.1 -0.6 -10.0 -9.3 4.8 -10.7 -7.3 -10.5 Total General Fund-State** 1,826,003 2,834,603 1,795,675 1,745,091 1,671,152 1,675,258 1,917,833 2,935,993 1,848,061 1,852,574 1,527,316 1,458,941 1,495,813 3.0 1.6 0.5 1.2 5.6 6.4 6.6 55.8 9.6 0.4 6.9 5.8 -18.1 *Monthly Revenues (month of beginning of collection period) ** Detail may not add due to rounding. The GFS total in this report includes only collections from larger state agencies: the DOR, Lottery Commission, AOC and DOL. Note: Italic figures refer to Year-over-Year percent change. Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Page 9 Revenue Forecast Variance Thousands of Dollars Difference Period/Source Estimate* Actual Amount Percent April 11 - May 10, 2020 May 10, 2020 Collections Compared to the February 2020 Forecast Department of Revenue-Total $1,924,238 $1,490,063 ($434,175) -22.6% Revenue Act** (1) 1,591,581 1,184,718 (406,862) -25.6% Non-Revenue Act(2) 332,657 305,345 (27,312) -8.2% Liquor Sales/Liter 25,059 25,200 141 0.6% Cigarette 26,582 29,322 2,739 10.3% Property (State School Levy) 195,818 186,427 (9,392) -4.8% Real Estate Excise 67,186 54,836 (12,350) -18.4% Unclaimed Property (683) (3,985) (3,302) NA Other 18,695 13,546 (5,149) -27.5% Administrative Office of the Courts (2) 6,186 5,750 (436) -7.1% Total General Fund-State*** $1,930,424 $1,495,813 ($434,611) -22.5% Cumulative Variance Since the February Forecast (February 11, 2020 - May 10, 2020) Department of Revenue-Total $4,894,594 $4,466,581 ($428,013) -8.7% Revenue Act** (3) 4,220,548 3,784,528 (436,020) -10.3% Non-Revenue Act(4) 674,046 682,053 8,007 1.2% Liquor Sales/Liter 66,831 68,383 1,553 2.3% Cigarette 71,138 68,850 (2,288) -3.2% Property (State School Levy) 268,489 264,967 (3,522) -1.3% Real Estate Excise 167,587 188,826 21,239 12.7% Unclaimed Property (1,755) (8,097) (6,342) NA Other 101,757 99,125 (2,633) -2.6% Administrative Office of the Courts (4) 15,999 15,489 (511) -3.2% Total General Fund-State*** $4,910,593 $4,482,070 ($428,523) -8.7% 1 Collections April 11 - May 10, 2020. Collections primarily reflect March 2020 activity of monthly filers and first quarter 2020 activity of quarterly filers. 2 April 2020 collections. 3 Cumulative collections, estimates and variance since the February 2020 forecast (February 11, 2020 - May 10, 2020) and revisions to history. 4 Cumulative collections, estimates and variance since the February forecast (February - April 2020) and revisions to history. *Based on the February 2020 economic and revenue forecast released February 19, 2020. **The Revenue Act consists of the retail sales, B&O, use, public utility, tobacco products taxes, and penalty and interest. *** Detail may not add due to rounding. The General Fund-State total in this report includes only collections from the Department of Revenue and the Administrative Office of the Courts. Economic and Revenue Forecast Council Page 10
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